Latest on Isabel

[Brenda]

Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
9/14/2003 12:30 P.M.
Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a
supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic
hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the
designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5
storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the
continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel
will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South
Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a
category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with
winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high
pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient
on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large
area of potentially damaging winds.
The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the
East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave
heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north
as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still
several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous
surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells
will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the
next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more
northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
California, however.

[Neil Gillis]

Most of the computer models suggest that Isabel will probably strike the
east coast around the Chesapeake
Bay area. However, these "predictions" change almost hourly. You might
find it interesting to follow the discusssions on the following
board/newsgroup: ne.weather No matter where Isable moves, it will have a
definite impact on cruises the latter part of this week

Neil
"Brenda" > wrote in message
om...
> Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
> 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M.
> Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
>
> In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a
> supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic
> hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the
> designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5
> storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the
> continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel
> will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South
> Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a
> category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with
> winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high
> pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient
> on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large
> area of potentially damaging winds.
> The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the
> East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave
> heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north
> as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still
> several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous
> surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
> Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells
> will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the
> next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more
> northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east.
>
> In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
> few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> California, however.

[Thomas Smith]

Here is the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service. It looks
like they are expeting landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina state line,
or possably along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday afternoon.

BEGIN QUOTE

000
WTNT43 KNHC 142039
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT ISABEL
REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR 135 KT SURFACE
EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED 171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE
LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS
CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS
AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE 00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS
THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE
500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10
KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN
THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST
IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE
NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA
OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S.
TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL
FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN EAST OF ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING
NORTHEASTWARD.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND
TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS BEEN
INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM
OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND

END QUOTE

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/142039.shtml?

Tom Smith

"Brenda" > wrote in message
om...
> Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
> 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M.
> Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
>
> In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a
> supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic
> hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the
> designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5
> storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the
> continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel
> will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South
> Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a
> category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with
> winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high
> pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient
> on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large
> area of potentially damaging winds.
> The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the
> East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave
> heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north
> as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still
> several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous
> surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
> Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells
> will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the
> next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more
> northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east.
>
> In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
> few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> California, however.

[Brenda]

This morning at 04:40AM EDT she is 550 miles east of Nassau.......

I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler &
pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N.
Also saw that the plywood sheets are going for $20 a piece.
RIPOFF!!!!

"Thomas Smith" -NO-SPAM> wrote in message >...
> Here is the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service. It looks
> like they are expeting landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina state line,
> or possably along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday afternoon.
>
> BEGIN QUOTE
>
> 000
> WTNT43 KNHC 142039
> TCDAT3
> HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
> NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
> 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003
>
> THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT ISABEL
> REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
> HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR 135 KT SURFACE
> EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA
> HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED 171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE
> LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS
> INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
> REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.
>
> THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
> PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN
> COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
> CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS
> CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS
> AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE 00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS
> THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE
> 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10
> KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
> RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN
> THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST
> IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE
> FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE
> NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA
> OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE
> PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
> EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY
> FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
> EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S.
> TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE
> INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL
> FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL
> RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
> REMAIN EAST OF ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING
> NORTHEASTWARD.
>
> ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
> DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A
> FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO
> BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
> UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
> EAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND
> TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS BEEN
> INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM
> OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
>
> FORECASTER STEWART
>
> FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
>
> INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
> 12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
> 24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
> 36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
> 48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
> 72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
> 96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
> 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND
>
> END QUOTE
>
> Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/142039.shtml?
>
> Tom Smith
>
> "Brenda" > wrote in message
> om...
> > Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
> > 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M.
> > Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
> >
> > In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a
> > supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic
> > hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the
> > designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5
> > storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the
> > continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel
> > will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South
> > Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a
> > category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with
> > winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high
> > pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient
> > on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large
> > area of potentially damaging winds.
> > The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the
> > East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave
> > heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north
> > as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still
> > several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous
> > surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
> > Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells
> > will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the
> > next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more
> > northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east.
> >
> > In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> > forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
> > few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> > California, however.

[Charles]

In article >, Brenda
> wrote:

> I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler &
> pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N.

You predicted South Carolina, not North Carolina.

--
Charles

[fishman]

"Brenda" > wrote in message
om...
> This morning at 04:40AM EDT she is 550 miles east of Nassau.......
>
> I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler &
> pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N.
> Also saw that the plywood sheets are going for $20 a piece.
> RIPOFF!!!!
>


Wait until AFTER the storm - then again, the guy in Miami trying to sell a
bag of diapers to a frustrated new daddy for $25 got the tar beat out of
him; people would drive down here with truckloads full of ice (to get past
the National Guard they had to have a local address) and try to sell them
for $10. Then again, there was the greatest outpouring of relief from
across the nation and across the world. Our power was turned on by a crew
from Michigan! The disaster squads from Charleston and Dade County (Hugo &
Andrew) are on standby and will be at the site of the worst-hit areas
within hours of the storm passing.

Chris

[villa deauville]

I remember being on the Turnpike a few days after Andrew hit. There were
convoys of lorries on their way to the disaster area carrying supplies.
They were being routed around the tolls They were greeted along the
Turnpike with horns beeping. How did we know they were on their way to
help out. ? There were signs on the lorries.

SUNNY<...........saw terrible destruction after Andrew hit

S'nd I

[fishman]

"villa deauville" > wrote in message
...
> I remember being on the Turnpike a few days after Andrew hit. There were
> convoys of lorries on their way to the disaster area carrying supplies.
> They were being routed around the tolls They were greeted along the
> Turnpike with horns beeping. How did we know they were on their way to
> help out. ? There were signs on the lorries.
>
> SUNNY<...........saw terrible destruction after Andrew hit
>
> S'nd I
>
>

The kids and I left to MIL's house in Cocoa (it sure helped the marriage
that we were apart and left him to do rebuilding without distraction). We
all three sat on the I-95 overpass and cried, waving at the hundreds of
vehicles in the military relief convoys. Part of our problem was the
isolation, at the tip of the peninsula. The mid-Atlantic coast will have a
much larger, and closer, support system.

Chris

[Brenda]

Yep, I did predict S Carolina (gosh after all the 9/11 stuff I had to
attend or work at, I am pooped!) Great news for East Coast - LOWE'S
had announced a price freeze on all hurricane related mdse.
Batteries, Water, Plywood, Nails, Hammers, ladders, even generators
which they are tripling the stock on. I was just at our store to
reseed my lawn with all the rain do here with Isabel, and they are
handing our announcement to tell friends or relative on the E Coast &
have them ready........ THURSDAY if not sooner will be land fall.....
just skip Bermuda.


(Brenda) wrote in message >...
> This morning at 04:40AM EDT she is 550 miles east of Nassau.......
>
> I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler &
> pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N.
> Also saw that the plywood sheets are going for $20 a piece.
> RIPOFF!!!!
>
> "Thomas Smith" -NO-SPAM> wrote in message >...
> > Here is the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service. It looks
> > like they are expeting landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina state line,
> > or possably along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday afternoon.
> >
> > BEGIN QUOTE
> >
> > 000
> > WTNT43 KNHC 142039
> > TCDAT3
> > HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
> > NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
> > 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003
> >
> > THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT ISABEL
> > REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
> > HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR 135 KT SURFACE
> > EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA
> > HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED 171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE
> > LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS
> > INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
> > REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.
> >
> > THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
> > PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN
> > COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
> > CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS
> > CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS
> > AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE 00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS
> > THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE
> > 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10
> > KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
> > RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN
> > THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST
> > IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE
> > FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE
> > NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA
> > OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE
> > PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
> > EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY
> > FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
> > EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S.
> > TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE
> > INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL
> > FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL
> > RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
> > REMAIN EAST OF ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING
> > NORTHEASTWARD.
> >
> > ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
> > DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A
> > FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO
> > BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
> > UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
> > EAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND
> > TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS BEEN
> > INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM
> > OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
> >
> > FORECASTER STEWART
> >
> > FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
> >
> > INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
> > 12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
> > 24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
> > 36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
> > 48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
> > 72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
> > 96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
> > 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND
> >
> > END QUOTE
> >
> > Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/142039.shtml?
> >
> > Tom Smith
> >
> > "Brenda" > wrote in message
> > om...
> > > Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
> > > 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M.
> > > Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
> > >
> > > In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a
> > > supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic
> > > hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the
> > > designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5
> > > storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the
> > > continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel
> > > will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South
> > > Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a
> > > category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with
> > > winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high
> > > pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient
> > > on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large
> > > area of potentially damaging winds.
> > > The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the
> > > East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave
> > > heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north
> > > as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still
> > > several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous
> > > surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
> > > Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells
> > > will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the
> > > next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more
> > > northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east.
> > >
> > > In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> > > forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
> > > few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> > > California, however.

[Brenda]

Isabel churns west-northwestward, weakens a bit
9/15/2003 2:34 P.M.
Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Isabel has weakened a bit today, but remains an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane and continues to track inexorably toward the U.
S. The hurricane, currently centered about 500 miles east of Nassau,
Bahamas, is looking a lot more raggedy this afternoon than it did
yesterday, having been "choked" a bit. That is, its outflow--or
exhaust mechanism--aloft has been inhibited. Think of it as similar to
sticking a potato in the exhaust pipe of a car: the engine doesn't run
so well. It remains likely, however, that Isabel will make a
comeback--the "potato" plucked from its exhaust--and thunder ashore
sometime Thursday along the Mid-Atlantic coast. No location from North
Carolina to Long Island is off the hook. The exact spot of Isabel's
landfall may be difficult to predict due to the extreme angle at which
the storm could be approaching the coast, especially if it stays out
to sea north of Cape Hatteras. A very tiny change in the hurricane's
direction of movement could shift its landfall by a hundred miles or
more. Although Isabel is not a particularly large hurricane, its wind
field will expand dramatically as it nears the U. S. and encounters a
building high pressure area over the Northeast. Thus, even though the
strongest winds should occur someplace along the Mid-Atlantic coast
(wherever Isabel comes ashore), gales eventually could pound beaches
as far north as Maine. In the meantime, the first harbingers of
Isabel's fury will be building surf and rip currents along the Eastern
Seaboard. No high surf warnings have yet been issued, but it shouldn't
be long before some are. Today, large swells and dangerous surf are
battering portions of the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands and the
Greater and Lesser Antilles.
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda, about 325 miles SW of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, is churning toward the NW. Linda is expected
to become a minimal hurricane later today and turn gradually to a more
WNW track over the next 24 hours.

[Charles]

In article >, Brenda
> wrote:

> Great news for East Coast - LOWE'S had announced a price freeze on
> all hurricane related mdse. Batteries, Water, Plywood, Nails,
> Hammers, ladders, even generators

Whoopee.

--
Charles

[Jean O'Boyle]

"Charles" > wrote in message
d...
> In article >, Brenda
> > wrote:
>
> > Great news for East Coast - LOWE'S had announced a price freeze on
> > all hurricane related mdse. Batteries, Water, Plywood, Nails,
> > Hammers, ladders, even generators
>
> Whoopee.
>
> --
> Charles

;-)
Nothing like having your personal weather person!!

--Jean

[CupCaked]

(Brenda) wrote:

> Great news for East Coast - LOWE'S
>had announced a price freeze on all hurricane related mdse.
>Batteries, Water, Plywood, Nails, Hammers, ladders, even generators
>which they are tripling the stock on. I was just at our store to
>reseed my lawn with all the rain do here with Isabel, and they are
>handing our announcement to tell friends or relative on the E Coast &
>have them ready........ THURSDAY if not sooner will be land fall.....

Yeah, that *is* "great" news. . . a dangerous hurricane's coming.
What an odd post.

Karen


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http://www.cupcaked.com/reviews
(...and leave off the "potatoes" to e-mail)

[Linda Coffman]

"Brenda" wrote in message...
> In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
> few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> California, however.

Storms named after me never amount to much. Darn! <g>

Linda
-----
http://cruisediva.com

[fishman]

"Linda Coffman" > wrote in message
...
> "Brenda" wrote in message...
> > In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> > forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next
> > few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> > California, however.
>
> Storms named after me never amount to much. Darn! <g>
>
> Linda
> -----
> http://cruisediva.com
>
>

I had a friend who had a 3-year-old named Andrew. After the hurricane of
the same name, the little kid, whose middle name was already 'No', kept
crying after the news was turned on - he thought everyone was mad at HIM!

Chris

[Jim]

Wait, isn't it against the law to increase prices on items such as this
while an emergency is pending? I know in Florida you cannot do this and
there is a Federal Law against price gouging during the emergency. If Lowes
or any other store were to raise the prices of any of this merchandise I
think people would be more than justified in being upset and hopefully they
could prosecute those type businesses.While we here in Florida are breathing
much easier and looks quite certain we dodged another bullet I am afraid
that our neighbors to the north will not fare so well and all we can do at
this point is send them our prayers.
Jim


"Brenda" > wrote in message
om...
> Yep, I did predict S Carolina (gosh after all the 9/11 stuff I had to
> attend or work at, I am pooped!) Great news for East Coast - LOWE'S
> had announced a price freeze on all hurricane related mdse.
> Batteries, Water, Plywood, Nails, Hammers, ladders, even generators
> which they are tripling the stock on. I was just at our store to
> reseed my lawn with all the rain do here with Isabel, and they are
> handing our announcement to tell friends or relative on the E Coast &
> have them ready........ THURSDAY if not sooner will be land fall.....
> just skip Bermuda.
>
>
> (Brenda) wrote in message
>...
> > This morning at 04:40AM EDT she is 550 miles east of Nassau.......
> >
> > I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler &
> > pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N.
> > Also saw that the plywood sheets are going for $20 a piece.
> > RIPOFF!!!!
> >
> > "Thomas Smith" -NO-SPAM> wrote in
message
>...
> > > Here is the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service. It
looks
> > > like they are expeting landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina state
line,
> > > or possably along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday
afternoon.
> > >
> > > BEGIN QUOTE
> > >
> > > 000
> > > WTNT43 KNHC 142039
> > > TCDAT3
> > > HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
> > > NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
> > > 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003
> > >
> > > THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT
ISABEL
> > > REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
> > > HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR 135 KT
SURFACE
> > > EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA
> > > HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED 171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN
THE
> > > LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS
> > > INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN
> > > REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.
> > >
> > > THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE
> > > PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE
BEEN
> > > COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO
> > > CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS
> > > CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H
TRACK IS
> > > AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE 00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF
INFORMATION IS
> > > THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE
THE
> > > 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION
OF 10
> > > KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS
THAT THE
> > > RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER
THAN
> > > THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT
LEAST
> > > IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS
ARE
> > > FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY
THE
> > > NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA
> > > OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE
> > > PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN
> > > EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY
> > > FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE
> > > EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S.
> > > TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE
> > > INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN
LANDFALL
> > > FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL
> > > RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO
> > > REMAIN EAST OF ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING
> > > NORTHEASTWARD.
> > >
> > > ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF
> > > DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND
REMAIN IN A
> > > FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS
FORECAST TO
> > > BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHERLY
> > > UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN
> > > EAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD
TEND
> > > TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS BEEN
> > > INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM
GULFSTREAM
> > > OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
> > >
> > > FORECASTER STEWART
> > >
> > > FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
> > >
> > > INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
> > > 12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
> > > 24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
> > > 36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
> > > 48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
> > > 72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
> > > 96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
> > > 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND
> > >
> > > END QUOTE
> > >
> > > Source:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/142039.shtml?
> > >
> > > Tom Smith
> > >
> > > "Brenda" > wrote in message
> > > om...
> > > > Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
> > > > 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M.
> > > > Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
> > > >
> > > > In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a
> > > > supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic
> > > > hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the
> > > > designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5
> > > > storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the
> > > > continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel
> > > > will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South
> > > > Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a
> > > > category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane
with
> > > > winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high
> > > > pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure
gradient
> > > > on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a
large
> > > > area of potentially damaging winds.
> > > > The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the
> > > > East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave
> > > > heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far
north
> > > > as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still
> > > > several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous
> > > > surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
> > > > Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large
swells
> > > > will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over
the
> > > > next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more
> > > > northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east.
> > > >
> > > > In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is
> > > > forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the
next
> > > > few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja
> > > > California, however.

[Brenda]

Gosh, a hurricane hitting anyone at night...... YIKES! Waves look
great tho. Only hours away & I am looking at her going back to a 3 &
Northbound a bit & I am routing for the Carolinas to be spared & head
for ATLANTIC CITY!

Cleveland is to see her West end on Friday evening, give me 10" of
rain with our brown lawn.

[Sue and Kevin Mullen]

Brenda wrote:

> Gosh, a hurricane hitting anyone at night...... YIKES! Waves look
> great tho. Only hours away & I am looking at her going back to a 3 &
> Northbound a bit & I am routing for the Carolinas to be spared & head
> for ATLANTIC CITY!

Very sweet of you Brenda, I think the people who live in or near
Atlantic City would disagree with you!!!!!!!!!!

sue

[CupCaked]

(Brenda) wrote:

>Gosh, a hurricane hitting anyone at night...... YIKES! Waves look
>great tho. Only hours away & I am looking at her going back to a 3 &
>Northbound a bit & I am routing for the Carolinas to be spared & head
>for ATLANTIC CITY!

How nice of you, Brenda, to wish a hurricane on the Garden State.

Geesh!

Karen

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http://www.cupcaked.com/reviews
(...and leave off the "potatoes" to e-mail)

[Sue and Kevin Mullen]

CupCaked wrote:

> (Brenda) wrote:
>
>
>>Gosh, a hurricane hitting anyone at night...... YIKES! Waves look
>>great tho. Only hours away & I am looking at her going back to a 3 &
>>Northbound a bit & I am routing for the Carolinas to be spared & head
>>for ATLANTIC CITY!
>
>
> How nice of you, Brenda, to wish a hurricane on the Garden State.
>
> Geesh!

She is just being her sweet(?) old self!!

sue

[Annie Noname4]

Live in the "GARDEN STATE" do not want any part of the hurricane,nor do
we wish it on anyone else.
ANNIE

[Sue and Kevin Mullen]

Annie Noname4 wrote:

> Live in the "GARDEN STATE" do not want any part of the hurricane,nor do
> we wish it on anyone else.
> ANNIE
>

Annie, I am with you on that.

sue