I certainly wouldn't recommend certain currency traders at the
National Australia Bank, they don't seem to have been very good at
predicting currency movements :-)

John L.

On Mon, 19 Jan 2004 03:03:05 GMT, Raffi Balmanoukian
a wrote:

in article 4mAOb.159582$JQ1.31025@pd7tw1no, Ian Phillips at
wrote on 1/18/04 2:35 PM:

I think the Aussie dollar is a commodity play like our Canuck buck.
The Aussies are alted to have one of the strongest economies this year.
Would suggest that the Aussie dollar will continue to rise this year
This is still a volatile time for currency adjustments

Ian



Bit of a difference in the diversity of the Australian and Canadian trading
economies - Australia is better able to withstand the shocks in any single
foreign economy or commodity (Asian contagion, wool prices, health scares,
quarantines, US/European meltdowns). Canada essentially has one trading
partner - much has been said of the rise in the Canadian dollar in 2003. It
hasn't gone up (vis a vis other currencies); the US dollar has gone down.
The Australian dollar, OTOH, has appreciated against most significant
currencies so I'd argue its underlying strength is greater.

Still.....my original point remains: if you can predict currency patterns,
central banks will cut you a blank cheque (in the denomination of your
choice) to work for them. They pay people plenty to guess wrong.