Some comments on the ETA

Don`t grab and run too quickly on this one. After each attack like this a
number of organizations "take credit".

The kind of operation has (mostly) the signature of the ETA. The departure
is their not taking credit immediately. The size was also much larger.

The next critical step is the forensics. A large large quantity of dynamite
was stolen in Bretagne a couple of years so, some has been recovered
but this has been the dynamite used in past bombings. A 500kg quantity
was seized and two ETAs arrested a short while ago.

The forensic question is whether the residues compositions of this
series of bombings matches the other series known to be ETA. The question
then is one of getting hold of this much dynamite. The ETA has
a long track record of being able to do so.

I think it unlikely that there has been an ETA-Al Qaeda hookup but
don`t 100% exclude it. The Iraqi war has produced some fusions in
the Middle East itself, creating a problem where none existed before.

Next, problems within the ETA movement itself. From reports
here 600 are in prison and a couple of hundred running around but the hard
core is less than a 100, according to people who specialize in knowing
the structure of the organization. That 100 is a lot of people, they
don`t all think alike.

Lately the amount of money sent to supporting those in prison has decreased
indicating that money is short. Money collected from "revolutionary taxes"
has been dropping which means lack of support in the Basque
areas themselves. This money is extracted sometimes via
threats, are the treats no long working? Is the organization breaking
up?

The movement is also not homogenous, there are parts of it not for this kind
of act anymore. But like the IRA there is a hard core who wish to go to the
limit. All these movements have a wing that goes authentically criminal
even by their own standards. Has the ETA become rotten in that sense? If
so, extreme tactics will be tried. Terrorism is a ³moveable feast², the
tactics evolve in time. In my 30 years in Paris I have seen them come
and go.

As for Al-Qaeda taking credit, this morning's news points out.

"The United States believes Al-Masri sometimes falsely claims to be acting
on behalf of al-Qaida. The group took credit for blackouts in the United
States and London last year."

The Spanish Government, most people in Spain lean heavily towards the
ETA.

"Spain's government is studying the reported al-Qaida claim but still
believes ETA is more likely responsible, a senior official in Aznar's office
said."

"Spain's security forces were not ruling out "any line of investigation,"
Interior Minister Angel Acebes said. "

As I have remarked in the past, of all the terrorists we have met in prison,
the ETA are the "smartest". They have good family and organizational
infrastructure support. They have been better organized than the Arab
terrorist groups in Europe.

As for blaming Al-Qaeda, internationally there are people who have a
vested interest in doing so, Bush, Blair and Putin, for example. Bush
needs this kind of thing for his Presidential campaign, as long as
they don`t occur on his turf.

Internally, Spain would prefer the ETA. But either the ETA or Al-Qaeda
have an interest in giving Aznar trouble on his departure from office.

I will bet on the ETA, giving the Al-Qaeda's involvement as "less probable
rating", this being my 90/10 guess.

The French, however, has been directly menaced by Al-Qaeda over the head
scarf issue. A train bombing is not unlikely in France, it has occurred
before.

Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain
than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s
force participation In Iraq but that is not the current issue in Spain.
The elections were leaning towards the right in any case, so they
did not suffer by this association.



Earl

Earl Evleth wrote in message
...


Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain
than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s
force participation In Iraq

As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair.

Surreyman

"Earl Evleth" wrote in message
...



The movement is also not homogenous, there are parts of it not for this
kind
of act anymore. But like the IRA there is a hard core who wish to go to
the
limit. All these movements have a wing that goes authentically criminal
even by their own standards. Has the ETA become rotten in that sense? If
so, extreme tactics will be tried. Terrorism is a ³moveable feast², the
tactics evolve in time. In my 30 years in Paris I have seen them come
and go.


The analogy with the IRA is a good one. As the Provisional IRA became
more aligned with the peace movement splinter groups like the
Real IRA formed which made attacks without issuing the sort
of warnings the Provo's gave

Keith

On 12/03/04 11:42, in article Jug4c.24$X_3.12@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3"
wrote:


Earl Evleth wrote in message
...


Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain
than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s
force participation In Iraq

As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair.

Surreyman


I thought that British public opinion tended to vacillate a bit.

For instance, on April 5th, 2003
(National Journal) was written---

"Ten days before the war began, an ICM
Research poll for the Sunday newspaper News
of the World found only 29 percent of the
British public approving of Blair's handling of
the situation in Iraq. A few days into the war,
the same polling firm found that the prime
minister's approval rating on Iraq had nearly
doubled, to 55 percent. Instead of being led by
the polls ,Blair has led the polls."

If Iraq had continued to be a success, public
opinion would have continued to fall behind him.
In that sense Blair was a leader. But so was Hitler.

One often complains of "weather vane" politicians
who change their positions in step with public
sentiment. But the public is just as bad!

In fact successful politicians resonate with the people
and if the people are idiots so are the leaders.

Earl

Earl Evleth wrote in message
...
On 12/03/04 11:42, in article Jug4c.24$X_3.12@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3"
wrote:


Earl Evleth wrote in message
...


Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain
than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s
force participation In Iraq

As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair.

Surreyman


I thought that British public opinion tended to vacillate a bit.

For instance, on April 5th, 2003
(National Journal) was written---

"Ten days before the war began, an ICM
Research poll for the Sunday newspaper News
of the World found only 29 percent of the
British public approving of Blair's handling of
the situation in Iraq. A few days into the war,
the same polling firm found that the prime
minister's approval rating on Iraq had nearly
doubled, to 55 percent. Instead of being led by
the polls ,Blair has led the polls."

If Iraq had continued to be a success, public
opinion would have continued to fall behind him.
In that sense Blair was a leader. But so was Hitler.

One often complains of "weather vane" politicians
who change their positions in step with public
sentiment. But the public is just as bad!

In fact successful politicians resonate with the people
and if the people are idiots so are the leaders.


Pre the UN fiasco, over 80% of Brits were against non-UN invasion.
Once we were in, the figures were complicated, due to most, inevitably,
wishing to support the troops involved, if not the policy.
I suspect, if a poll were taken now, a majority would still wish that we had
not got involved in the first place.

Surreyman

On Fri, 12 Mar 2004 12:09:49 +0100, Earl Evleth
wrote:

On 12/03/04 11:42, in article Jug4c.24$X_3.12@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3"
wrote:


Earl Evleth wrote in message
...


Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain
than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s
force participation In Iraq

As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair.

Surreyman


I thought that British public opinion tended to vacillate a bit.

For instance, on April 5th, 2003
(National Journal) was written---

"Ten days before the war began, an ICM
Research poll for the Sunday newspaper News
of the World found only 29 percent of the
British public approving of Blair's handling of
the situation in Iraq. A few days into the war,
the same polling firm found that the prime
minister's approval rating on Iraq had nearly
doubled, to 55 percent. Instead of being led by
the polls ,Blair has led the polls."

If Iraq had continued to be a success, public
opinion would have continued to fall behind him.
In that sense Blair was a leader. But so was Hitler.

One often complains of "weather vane" politicians
who change their positions in step with public
sentiment. But the public is just as bad!

In fact successful politicians resonate with the people
and if the people are idiots so are the leaders.

Earl

Before the war, most were opposed. During it, there was a "well at
least let's support our troops" attitude. After the war, when no WMDs
were found and in the light of intelliegnece ****-ups and an apparent
tissue of lies, half-truths and evasions, public opinion seems to have
swung back.

On 12/03/04 11:52, in article , "Keith
Willshaw" wrote:



The analogy with the IRA is a good one. As the Provisional IRA became
more aligned with the peace movement splinter groups like the
Real IRA formed which made attacks without issuing the sort
of warnings the Provo's gave



I just came across this, from the Guardian. As unusual the better
parts of the British press gives a lot more background than the American,
although the New York Times and Washington Post might later.

It is clear that there was an anticipated change in tactics but I have
not realized the influence of the young. The Basque terrorists we have
met (in prison) are older, in their later 20s, married and with children.
My judgment is that those who leave prison will "settle" down, the
families don`t appear totally supportive of their activities. They
figure they have done their share and want to move on. These are
impressions since one can not talk this over with them in prison
meetings. We would not ask in any case. We dealing with people like
this one does not get serious, just polite conversation. Visiting
prisoners has a different code of conversation. If anybody else
has done this I would be interested in their impressions.

Earl

******


A new - and bloody - style of attack

If Eta is behind the attacks, it would point to a deadly change of tactics

Giles Tremlett in Madrid and Owen Bowcott
Friday March 12, 2004
The Guardian

One early spring morning of bloodshed and carnage appeared to have given the
armed Basque separatist group Eta, officially blamed for the Madrid attacks,
a horrendous increase in its toll of victims, as experts said a group
cornered by police might have lashed out in desperation.

Amongst the actors weighing against Eta's alleged authorship were the robust
denials issued by people from the banned Batasuna separatist party who
usually refuse to criticise the group.

"The Basque pro-independence left wishes to clearly express the most
absolute rejection of what happened today in Madrid. Indiscriminate actions
against civilians, against workers ... are absolutely and firmly rejected,"
former Batasuna leader Arnaldo Otegi said in a statement.

A similar statement from Batasuna's representative in the European
Parliament, Koldo Gorostiaga, said: "The action should be considered as a
massacre and that it does not have any justification."

Experts, however, said the attack might fit with a new, deadlier Eta, run by
a relatively fresh intake of men and women who are mostly in their 20s and
on the defensive as the arrest rate of activists has risen to more than 100
a year.

Recent Eta propaganda videos have shown young people, many of them graduates
of the school of street violence, demonstrating weapons.

"This is a new generation of people in their teens and 20s. They may not
feel they are under the same political constraints as before," said Dr John
Gearson, a senior lecturer in terrorism at the defence studies department of
King's College London. "If it is Eta's work, then it appears to be a new
style of attack, or a new wing of the movement. It's like 'Real' or
'Continuity' Eta," he added, drawing a parallel with Northern Ireland's
dissident republican organisations which have ignored the general ceasefire.

But a switch to indiscriminate attacks bound to provoke carnage among
ordinary people was a sign of desperation, experts said. "If this is Eta,
then it is by no means a sign of strength. It would be a case of trying to
give an appearance of a strength that they do not really have," said Rogelio
Alonso, a terrorism expert at Madrid's Rey Juan Carlos University.

The group's decline over the past few years has been spectacular, with three
people killed last year, and 250 Eta members caught by police in France and
Spain in the past two years. Police reportedly believe that only 200 or so
activists are left.

Spanish government sources had originally insisted the blasts were the work
of Eta, despite the differences between them and previous attacks.

Until yesterday the most deadly Eta attack was in 1987 when a blast at an
underground car park at a Barcelona supermarket killed 21 people. Eta later
claimed it had made mistake. Yesterday's blast did not come with any
warning, nor was it aimed against the police, military, political or
judicial targets at which the group has traditionally taken aim.

Car bombs designed to cause damage to economic targets, such as tourist
hotels and airports, have almost always been exploded after a telephoned
warning.

Earlier government officials had argued with conviction that Eta must be
involved, ringing The Guardian to rebut some of the arguments pointing away
from the group.

"It is absolutely clear and evident that the terrorist organisation Eta was
looking to commit a major attack," the interior minister, Angel Acebes,
said.

"The only thing that varies is the train station that was targeted," he
said, referring to a failed Christmas attack at Madrid's Chamartin rail
station.

Government sources told the Guardian that the explosives used included a
type of dynamite known as titadine, a quantity of which was stolen from a
French mine by Eta several years ago and which has appeared in most recent
Eta bombs.

A first signal of Eta's apparent change of tactics came when explosives in
travel bags were found on a train headed to Madrid on Christmas Eve, and in
possession of an Eta member who intended to put a second satchel on board,
they said.

On February 29 police stopped a van about 80 miles south-east of Madrid and
found half a tonne of potassium chloride compound, titadine, a core fuse and
an electrical detonator - enough to demolish a tall building. Two alleged
Eta members were arrested.

"Eta does use backpacks for planting bombs and it does attack trains," Dr
Gearson said. "If it's attention they want, maybe they have decided to kill
people rather than targeting small tourist hotels."

Mr Aznar, who was the target of a 1995 bomb attack and went on to make the
battle against Eta one of his main priorities, said that his People's party
would not change because of the attacks. "The terrorists have an operating
capacity weaker than ever," Mr Aznar said, but also a "tragically active"
willingness to keep fighting. "No one should aspire to anything other than
the concrete defeat of terrorism, a complete and total defeat, surrender
without conditions of any kind."

Last night the newspaper El Mundo reported that the EU's police agency
reported in December that Eta was changing its operating method. It warned
of a scaling up of attacks, and talked specifically of attacks in the
capital in which several devices would be successively detonated in
strategically important locations. It also warned of possible attacks in
France.

The director of Europol, Jürgen Storbeck, who was in Rome to talk to an
Italian parliamentary committee, told the Italian news agency Ansa: "It
could have been Eta ... but we're dealing with an attack that doesn't
correspond to the modus operandi they have adopted up to now."

Despite Spain's recent successes against Eta, "there could still be other
cells that have not been brought under control and could have become more
extremist," he added.

On 12/03/04 12:20, in article j%g4c.155$YJ4.137@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3"
wrote:

I suspect, if a poll were taken now, a majority would still wish that we had
not got involved in the first place.

Agreed. Things are more complicated than anticipated (they always are).

I think that it was Churchill who said war is a series of catastrophes
ending in victory. He was optimistic since it can end in defeat.

Or as some unknown American wrote "turn off the light at the end of the
tunnel when you leave" on the last day of the American evacuation
from Saigon. This was posted in the compound of the American Embassy.

Earl

"Earl Evleth" wrote in message
...

Don`t grab and run too quickly on this one. After each attack like this a
number of organizations "take credit".

The kind of operation has (mostly) the signature of the ETA. The
departure
is their not taking credit immediately. The size was also much larger.

They also frequently send warnings and normally target officials, rather
than the general public. The attempt to kill as many people as possible has
more of the hallmarks of Islamic militants. If the trains had not been
running a couple of minutes late, they would have been in the station when
the bombs went off and there were additional bombs, defused by the bomb
squad, that were timed to detonate as rescuers would have been working on
the scene. Unless ETA, or some splinter group, has decided to make a major
change in its tactics, my money is still on one of the Islamic militant
groups.

Colin Bignell

On 12/03/04 13:13, in article ,
"/rist" wrote:

Earl Evleth wrote:

I will bet on the ETA, giving the Al-Qaeda's involvement as "less probable
rating", this being my 90/10 guess.

How about this being an ETA attack made to look as an Al-Qaeda attack...

The tract in Arab in the camionette near the departing point of the trains
is and Arab hint. Plant?

I don`t know

But the explosives used of the same type as the 8 tons stolen in Bretage
three years ago. Not all of that 8 tons has been accounted for, 500 kgs
were recovered in a truck and to ETA terrorists arrested just a while back.

For now it is for the scientifics to work on this.

Earl