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#1
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Some comments on the ETA
Don`t grab and run too quickly on this one. After each attack like this a number of organizations "take credit". The kind of operation has (mostly) the signature of the ETA. The departure is their not taking credit immediately. The size was also much larger. The next critical step is the forensics. A large large quantity of dynamite was stolen in Bretagne a couple of years so, some has been recovered but this has been the dynamite used in past bombings. A 500kg quantity was seized and two ETAs arrested a short while ago. The forensic question is whether the residues compositions of this series of bombings matches the other series known to be ETA. The question then is one of getting hold of this much dynamite. The ETA has a long track record of being able to do so. I think it unlikely that there has been an ETA-Al Qaeda hookup but don`t 100% exclude it. The Iraqi war has produced some fusions in the Middle East itself, creating a problem where none existed before. Next, problems within the ETA movement itself. From reports here 600 are in prison and a couple of hundred running around but the hard core is less than a 100, according to people who specialize in knowing the structure of the organization. That 100 is a lot of people, they don`t all think alike. Lately the amount of money sent to supporting those in prison has decreased indicating that money is short. Money collected from "revolutionary taxes" has been dropping which means lack of support in the Basque areas themselves. This money is extracted sometimes via threats, are the treats no long working? Is the organization breaking up? The movement is also not homogenous, there are parts of it not for this kind of act anymore. But like the IRA there is a hard core who wish to go to the limit. All these movements have a wing that goes authentically criminal even by their own standards. Has the ETA become rotten in that sense? If so, extreme tactics will be tried. Terrorism is a ³moveable feast², the tactics evolve in time. In my 30 years in Paris I have seen them come and go. As for Al-Qaeda taking credit, this morning's news points out. "The United States believes Al-Masri sometimes falsely claims to be acting on behalf of al-Qaida. The group took credit for blackouts in the United States and London last year." The Spanish Government, most people in Spain lean heavily towards the ETA. "Spain's government is studying the reported al-Qaida claim but still believes ETA is more likely responsible, a senior official in Aznar's office said." "Spain's security forces were not ruling out "any line of investigation," Interior Minister Angel Acebes said. " As I have remarked in the past, of all the terrorists we have met in prison, the ETA are the "smartest". They have good family and organizational infrastructure support. They have been better organized than the Arab terrorist groups in Europe. As for blaming Al-Qaeda, internationally there are people who have a vested interest in doing so, Bush, Blair and Putin, for example. Bush needs this kind of thing for his Presidential campaign, as long as they don`t occur on his turf. Internally, Spain would prefer the ETA. But either the ETA or Al-Qaeda have an interest in giving Aznar trouble on his departure from office. I will bet on the ETA, giving the Al-Qaeda's involvement as "less probable rating", this being my 90/10 guess. The French, however, has been directly menaced by Al-Qaeda over the head scarf issue. A train bombing is not unlikely in France, it has occurred before. Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s force participation In Iraq but that is not the current issue in Spain. The elections were leaning towards the right in any case, so they did not suffer by this association. Earl |
#2
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Some comments on the ETA
Earl Evleth wrote in message ... Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s force participation In Iraq As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair. Surreyman |
#3
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Some comments on the ETA
"Earl Evleth" wrote in message ... The movement is also not homogenous, there are parts of it not for this kind of act anymore. But like the IRA there is a hard core who wish to go to the limit. All these movements have a wing that goes authentically criminal even by their own standards. Has the ETA become rotten in that sense? If so, extreme tactics will be tried. Terrorism is a ³moveable feast², the tactics evolve in time. In my 30 years in Paris I have seen them come and go. The analogy with the IRA is a good one. As the Provisional IRA became more aligned with the peace movement splinter groups like the Real IRA formed which made attacks without issuing the sort of warnings the Provo's gave Keith |
#4
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Some comments on the ETA
On 12/03/04 11:42, in article Jug4c.24$X_3.12@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3"
wrote: Earl Evleth wrote in message ... Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s force participation In Iraq As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair. Surreyman I thought that British public opinion tended to vacillate a bit. For instance, on April 5th, 2003 (National Journal) was written--- "Ten days before the war began, an ICM Research poll for the Sunday newspaper News of the World found only 29 percent of the British public approving of Blair's handling of the situation in Iraq. A few days into the war, the same polling firm found that the prime minister's approval rating on Iraq had nearly doubled, to 55 percent. Instead of being led by the polls ,Blair has led the polls." If Iraq had continued to be a success, public opinion would have continued to fall behind him. In that sense Blair was a leader. But so was Hitler. One often complains of "weather vane" politicians who change their positions in step with public sentiment. But the public is just as bad! In fact successful politicians resonate with the people and if the people are idiots so are the leaders. Earl |
#5
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Some comments on the ETA
Earl Evleth wrote in message ... On 12/03/04 11:42, in article Jug4c.24$X_3.12@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3" wrote: Earl Evleth wrote in message ... Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s force participation In Iraq As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair. Surreyman I thought that British public opinion tended to vacillate a bit. For instance, on April 5th, 2003 (National Journal) was written--- "Ten days before the war began, an ICM Research poll for the Sunday newspaper News of the World found only 29 percent of the British public approving of Blair's handling of the situation in Iraq. A few days into the war, the same polling firm found that the prime minister's approval rating on Iraq had nearly doubled, to 55 percent. Instead of being led by the polls ,Blair has led the polls." If Iraq had continued to be a success, public opinion would have continued to fall behind him. In that sense Blair was a leader. But so was Hitler. One often complains of "weather vane" politicians who change their positions in step with public sentiment. But the public is just as bad! In fact successful politicians resonate with the people and if the people are idiots so are the leaders. Pre the UN fiasco, over 80% of Brits were against non-UN invasion. Once we were in, the figures were complicated, due to most, inevitably, wishing to support the troops involved, if not the policy. I suspect, if a poll were taken now, a majority would still wish that we had not got involved in the first place. Surreyman |
#6
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Some comments on the ETA
On Fri, 12 Mar 2004 12:09:49 +0100, Earl Evleth
wrote: On 12/03/04 11:42, in article Jug4c.24$X_3.12@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3" wrote: Earl Evleth wrote in message ... Al-Qaeda has a higher priority in punishing Britain than people on the continent. Most Spaniards were against Aznar`s force participation In Iraq As certainly were, and possibly are, most Brits re Blair. Surreyman I thought that British public opinion tended to vacillate a bit. For instance, on April 5th, 2003 (National Journal) was written--- "Ten days before the war began, an ICM Research poll for the Sunday newspaper News of the World found only 29 percent of the British public approving of Blair's handling of the situation in Iraq. A few days into the war, the same polling firm found that the prime minister's approval rating on Iraq had nearly doubled, to 55 percent. Instead of being led by the polls ,Blair has led the polls." If Iraq had continued to be a success, public opinion would have continued to fall behind him. In that sense Blair was a leader. But so was Hitler. One often complains of "weather vane" politicians who change their positions in step with public sentiment. But the public is just as bad! In fact successful politicians resonate with the people and if the people are idiots so are the leaders. Earl Before the war, most were opposed. During it, there was a "well at least let's support our troops" attitude. After the war, when no WMDs were found and in the light of intelliegnece ****-ups and an apparent tissue of lies, half-truths and evasions, public opinion seems to have swung back. |
#7
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Some comments on the ETA
On 12/03/04 11:52, in article , "Keith
Willshaw" wrote: The analogy with the IRA is a good one. As the Provisional IRA became more aligned with the peace movement splinter groups like the Real IRA formed which made attacks without issuing the sort of warnings the Provo's gave I just came across this, from the Guardian. As unusual the better parts of the British press gives a lot more background than the American, although the New York Times and Washington Post might later. It is clear that there was an anticipated change in tactics but I have not realized the influence of the young. The Basque terrorists we have met (in prison) are older, in their later 20s, married and with children. My judgment is that those who leave prison will "settle" down, the families don`t appear totally supportive of their activities. They figure they have done their share and want to move on. These are impressions since one can not talk this over with them in prison meetings. We would not ask in any case. We dealing with people like this one does not get serious, just polite conversation. Visiting prisoners has a different code of conversation. If anybody else has done this I would be interested in their impressions. Earl ****** A new - and bloody - style of attack If Eta is behind the attacks, it would point to a deadly change of tactics Giles Tremlett in Madrid and Owen Bowcott Friday March 12, 2004 The Guardian One early spring morning of bloodshed and carnage appeared to have given the armed Basque separatist group Eta, officially blamed for the Madrid attacks, a horrendous increase in its toll of victims, as experts said a group cornered by police might have lashed out in desperation. Amongst the actors weighing against Eta's alleged authorship were the robust denials issued by people from the banned Batasuna separatist party who usually refuse to criticise the group. "The Basque pro-independence left wishes to clearly express the most absolute rejection of what happened today in Madrid. Indiscriminate actions against civilians, against workers ... are absolutely and firmly rejected," former Batasuna leader Arnaldo Otegi said in a statement. A similar statement from Batasuna's representative in the European Parliament, Koldo Gorostiaga, said: "The action should be considered as a massacre and that it does not have any justification." Experts, however, said the attack might fit with a new, deadlier Eta, run by a relatively fresh intake of men and women who are mostly in their 20s and on the defensive as the arrest rate of activists has risen to more than 100 a year. Recent Eta propaganda videos have shown young people, many of them graduates of the school of street violence, demonstrating weapons. "This is a new generation of people in their teens and 20s. They may not feel they are under the same political constraints as before," said Dr John Gearson, a senior lecturer in terrorism at the defence studies department of King's College London. "If it is Eta's work, then it appears to be a new style of attack, or a new wing of the movement. It's like 'Real' or 'Continuity' Eta," he added, drawing a parallel with Northern Ireland's dissident republican organisations which have ignored the general ceasefire. But a switch to indiscriminate attacks bound to provoke carnage among ordinary people was a sign of desperation, experts said. "If this is Eta, then it is by no means a sign of strength. It would be a case of trying to give an appearance of a strength that they do not really have," said Rogelio Alonso, a terrorism expert at Madrid's Rey Juan Carlos University. The group's decline over the past few years has been spectacular, with three people killed last year, and 250 Eta members caught by police in France and Spain in the past two years. Police reportedly believe that only 200 or so activists are left. Spanish government sources had originally insisted the blasts were the work of Eta, despite the differences between them and previous attacks. Until yesterday the most deadly Eta attack was in 1987 when a blast at an underground car park at a Barcelona supermarket killed 21 people. Eta later claimed it had made mistake. Yesterday's blast did not come with any warning, nor was it aimed against the police, military, political or judicial targets at which the group has traditionally taken aim. Car bombs designed to cause damage to economic targets, such as tourist hotels and airports, have almost always been exploded after a telephoned warning. Earlier government officials had argued with conviction that Eta must be involved, ringing The Guardian to rebut some of the arguments pointing away from the group. "It is absolutely clear and evident that the terrorist organisation Eta was looking to commit a major attack," the interior minister, Angel Acebes, said. "The only thing that varies is the train station that was targeted," he said, referring to a failed Christmas attack at Madrid's Chamartin rail station. Government sources told the Guardian that the explosives used included a type of dynamite known as titadine, a quantity of which was stolen from a French mine by Eta several years ago and which has appeared in most recent Eta bombs. A first signal of Eta's apparent change of tactics came when explosives in travel bags were found on a train headed to Madrid on Christmas Eve, and in possession of an Eta member who intended to put a second satchel on board, they said. On February 29 police stopped a van about 80 miles south-east of Madrid and found half a tonne of potassium chloride compound, titadine, a core fuse and an electrical detonator - enough to demolish a tall building. Two alleged Eta members were arrested. "Eta does use backpacks for planting bombs and it does attack trains," Dr Gearson said. "If it's attention they want, maybe they have decided to kill people rather than targeting small tourist hotels." Mr Aznar, who was the target of a 1995 bomb attack and went on to make the battle against Eta one of his main priorities, said that his People's party would not change because of the attacks. "The terrorists have an operating capacity weaker than ever," Mr Aznar said, but also a "tragically active" willingness to keep fighting. "No one should aspire to anything other than the concrete defeat of terrorism, a complete and total defeat, surrender without conditions of any kind." Last night the newspaper El Mundo reported that the EU's police agency reported in December that Eta was changing its operating method. It warned of a scaling up of attacks, and talked specifically of attacks in the capital in which several devices would be successively detonated in strategically important locations. It also warned of possible attacks in France. The director of Europol, Jürgen Storbeck, who was in Rome to talk to an Italian parliamentary committee, told the Italian news agency Ansa: "It could have been Eta ... but we're dealing with an attack that doesn't correspond to the modus operandi they have adopted up to now." Despite Spain's recent successes against Eta, "there could still be other cells that have not been brought under control and could have become more extremist," he added. |
#8
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Some comments on the ETA
On 12/03/04 12:20, in article j%g4c.155$YJ4.137@newsfe1-win, "a.spencer3"
wrote: I suspect, if a poll were taken now, a majority would still wish that we had not got involved in the first place. Agreed. Things are more complicated than anticipated (they always are). I think that it was Churchill who said war is a series of catastrophes ending in victory. He was optimistic since it can end in defeat. Or as some unknown American wrote "turn off the light at the end of the tunnel when you leave" on the last day of the American evacuation from Saigon. This was posted in the compound of the American Embassy. Earl |
#9
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Some comments on the ETA
"Earl Evleth" wrote in message ... Don`t grab and run too quickly on this one. After each attack like this a number of organizations "take credit". The kind of operation has (mostly) the signature of the ETA. The departure is their not taking credit immediately. The size was also much larger. They also frequently send warnings and normally target officials, rather than the general public. The attempt to kill as many people as possible has more of the hallmarks of Islamic militants. If the trains had not been running a couple of minutes late, they would have been in the station when the bombs went off and there were additional bombs, defused by the bomb squad, that were timed to detonate as rescuers would have been working on the scene. Unless ETA, or some splinter group, has decided to make a major change in its tactics, my money is still on one of the Islamic militant groups. Colin Bignell |
#10
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Some comments on the ETA
On 12/03/04 13:13, in article ,
"/rist" wrote: Earl Evleth wrote: I will bet on the ETA, giving the Al-Qaeda's involvement as "less probable rating", this being my 90/10 guess. How about this being an ETA attack made to look as an Al-Qaeda attack... The tract in Arab in the camionette near the departing point of the trains is and Arab hint. Plant? I don`t know But the explosives used of the same type as the 8 tons stolen in Bretage three years ago. Not all of that 8 tons has been accounted for, 500 kgs were recovered in a truck and to ETA terrorists arrested just a while back. For now it is for the scientifics to work on this. Earl |
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