If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. |
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me. I hope the recent decline against U.S.$ was not this outcome already built-in to the market. For a real drop, China will have to float its currency and there is increasing pressure to force them to do that. jay Sun May 29, 2005 http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=4620734 Sun 29 May 2005 5:13pm (UK) French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis By Andrew Woodcock, PA Political Correspondent Millions of French voters today went to the polls in a referendum on the proposed European Constitution whose outcome will have a profound impact on the course of British politics. A no vote could plunge the EU into crisis, and would raise question marks over whether Britain will go ahead with its own referendum, pencilled in for spring next year. Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to hold urgent talks with fellow EU leaders in the event of French voters saying ÒnonÓ, but it is unlikely that a way forward will be agreed before a June 16 summit of EU leaders in Brussels. Final opinion polls predicted victory for the ÒnonÓ camp by a margin of as much as 10 points. However, the same polls suggested as many as 20% of voters were yet to make up their minds. Supporters of the constitution fear that a no vote could set off a domino effect in upcoming referendums in the Netherlands, Poland, Denmark and the UK. There are many who doubt that any treaty can survive rejection by France, which has always been at the heart of the European project. Wrangling over what to do about a French no vote threatens to overshadow BritainÕs six-month presidency of the EU, which begins on July 1. Polling stations opened across France at 7am UK time and were due to close 12 hours later, except in the cities of Paris and Lyon, where voters could cast their ballots until 9pm UK time. Exit polls were expected immediately after the final vote is cast, but the official result is not due until tomorrow morning. The Interior Ministry in Paris announced that, by midday, one in four of the 42 million entitled to vote had already turned out to do so. BritainÕs European Commissioner Peter Mandelson Ð a close ally of the Prime Minister Ð today suggested that the French could be asked to re-run their referendum if they vote no. This would salvage the constitutional process, at least temporarily, and clear the way for remaining EU members, including the UK, to carry on with their ratification processes as planned. Mr Blair has said the referendum will go ahead so long as there is still a treaty to vote on. Mr Mandelson today told Sky NewsÕ Sunday With Adam Boulton: ÒI donÕt think that would be absurd, because we would be asking the French people to reflect, to hear the argument or the debate in the rest of Europe and then to have a second opportunity to give their verdict again in the light of that debate. ÒWhat would be absurd is if you simply marched on and left the French people and their views behind you. You couldnÕt do that.Ó Mr MandelsonÕs predecessor in Brussels, the pro-European former Labour leader Lord Kinnock, said he was hoping for a ÒouiÓ vote today, in order to ensure Britain got its referendum and the period of public debate that would precede it. He told BBC1Õs Breakfast With Frost: ÒI really would like to get on with nine to 12 months of real argument and, more important, proper public information, so people can make a decision on the basis of acquaintance with the facts and the real alternatives.Ó But Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Sir Menzies Campbell told Sky News: ÒIf France votes No, France having been part of the engine room of Europe for so long, any suggestion that we might in Britain go on and have a referendum on this topic is, quite frankly, silly.Ó Shadow foreign secretary Liam Fox said a no vote would offer Òa wonderful opportunity for reform and to make European politicians think againÓ. He told Sky News: ÒI think we should have a British referendum if there is a process ongoing. ÒIt does seem from some of the views from the Commission that they intend to continue the process and keep the issue alive and, if necessary, ask the French to think again if they say No.Ó All 25 EU member-states must ratify the constitution in order for it to come into effect as planned in November next year. So far, nine have done so, eight by parliamentary vote and just one Ð Spain Ð by referendum. About 1.5 million voters in FranceÕs overseas territories from the Caribbean to Polynesia cast their ballots yesterday, with the results to be kept under wraps until the end of voting in mainland France. Latest News: ÊÊhttp://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
On 29/05/05 19:52, in article , "Go Fig"
wrote: I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me. Well I have seen the dollar at well over 1 dollar to the euro, and I have seen the dollar at well under. Nobody anticipates parity again soon. It might to to 1.2 dollar to the euro, maybe 1.15. No return soon to 1.35 however. The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them? Earl |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Go Fig writes:
I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me. Actually a yes or no won't really make much difference. Europe and the rest of the world will survive just fine in either case. -- Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
In article , Mxsmanic
wrote: Go Fig writes: I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me. Actually a yes or no won't really make much difference. You don't think 5%-15% isn't much of a difference ? The thrust behind the Constitution is economic, it will undoubtedly have a weakening effect on the Euro... that is if the predictions come true. The euro closed Friday, May 27, at $1.2584, rebounding after the survey by Paris-based CSA showed opposition to the treaty may be waning. It has weakened 7.1 percent against the dollar this year. ``We will have a problem with the euro'' following the French vote, said Guy Stern, who oversees $17.8 billion in assets as chief investment officer of Credit Suisse Asset Management's German business in Frankfurt. ``It could depreciate 5 percent to 10 percent.'' In a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey released May 17, 71 percent of European fund managers said a ``No'' would weaken the euro. jay Sun May 29, 2005 Europe and the rest of the world will survive just fine in either case. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Go Fig writes:
You don't think 5%-15% isn't much of a difference ? I don't think it really makes that much difference whether the constitution is ratified or not. The same trends will continue either way, towards a gradual elimination of democracy and an ever-increasing expansion of bureaucracy. The thrust behind the Constitution is economic, it will undoubtedly have a weakening effect on the Euro... that is if the predictions come true. The main problems with the constitution are that it is too long and complicated, and that it provides very poor representation for the population it is intended to govern. The euro closed Friday, May 27, at $1.2584, rebounding after the survey by Paris-based CSA showed opposition to the treaty may be waning. It has weakened 7.1 percent against the dollar this year. Wow. -- Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Mxsmanic wrote: The main problems with the constitution are that it is too long and complicated, and that it provides very poor representation for the population it is intended to govern. That's what I've heard. Anyplace I can go see this document online? |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Jim Ley wrote: On 29 May 2005 16:21:16 -0700, wrote: That's what I've heard. Anyplace I can go see this document online? http://european-convention.eu.int/bienvenue.asp?lang=EN Jim. We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for a weaker Euro? |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
On Sun, 29 May 2005 20:43:26 +0200, Earl Evleth
wrote: On 29/05/05 19:52, in article , "Go Fig" wrote: I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me. Well I have seen the dollar at well over 1 dollar to the euro, and I have seen the dollar at well under. Nobody anticipates parity again soon. It might to to 1.2 dollar to the euro, maybe 1.15. No return soon to 1.35 however. The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them? Earl Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but shoot you fool mouth about. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Who's killing the great wines of France? | Go Fig | Europe | 0 | March 3rd, 2005 06:26 AM |
The French diet connection | Earl Evleth | Europe | 30 | January 5th, 2005 08:15 PM |
The French diet connection | Earl Evleth | Europe | 0 | January 4th, 2005 01:14 PM |
Euro Disney sees its losses increase | Earl Evleth | Europe | 191 | November 18th, 2004 08:26 AM |
I'm tired of the french bashing | nobody | Europe | 143 | December 31st, 2003 04:09 PM |