French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis

writes:

That's what I've heard. Anyplace I can go see this document online?

Try http://europa.eu.int/constitution/download/print_en.pdf.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

lola writes:

We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
a weaker Euro?

No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

"Mxsmanic" wrote in message
...
lola writes:

We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
a weaker Euro?

No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.

Go Fig wrote:
I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the
Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me.

I hope the recent decline against U.S.$ was not this outcome already
built-in to the market. For a real drop, China will have to float its
currency and there is increasing pressure to force them to do that.

jay
Sun May 29, 2005




http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3D4620734
Sun 29 May 2005

5:13pm (UK)
French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis

By Andrew Woodcock, PA Political Correspondent

Millions of French voters today went to the polls in a referendum on
the proposed European Constitution whose outcome will have a profound
impact on the course of British politics.
A no vote could plunge the EU into crisis, and would raise question
marks over whether Britain will go ahead with its own referendum,
pencilled in for spring next year.
Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to hold urgent talks with fellow
EU leaders in the event of French voters saying =D2non=D3, but it is
unlikely that a way forward will be agreed before a June 16 summit of
EU leaders in Brussels.
Final opinion polls predicted victory for the =D2non=D3 camp by a margin =
of
as much as 10 points. However, the same polls suggested as many as 20%
of voters were yet to make up their minds.
Supporters of the constitution fear that a no vote could set off a
domino effect in upcoming referendums in the Netherlands, Poland,
Denmark and the UK. There are many who doubt that any treaty can
survive rejection by France, which has always been at the heart of the
European project.
Wrangling over what to do about a French no vote threatens to
overshadow Britain=D5s six-month presidency of the EU, which begins on
July 1.
Polling stations opened across France at 7am UK time and were due to
close 12 hours later, except in the cities of Paris and Lyon, where
voters could cast their ballots until 9pm UK time. Exit polls were
expected immediately after the final vote is cast, but the official
result is not due until tomorrow morning.
The Interior Ministry in Paris announced that, by midday, one in four
of the 42 million entitled to vote had already turned out to do so.
Britain=D5s European Commissioner Peter Mandelson =D0 a close ally of the
Prime Minister =D0 today suggested that the French could be asked to
re-run their referendum if they vote no.
This would salvage the constitutional process, at least temporarily,
and clear the way for remaining EU members, including the UK, to carry
on with their ratification processes as planned. Mr Blair has said the
referendum will go ahead so long as there is still a treaty to vote on.
Mr Mandelson today told Sky News=D5 Sunday With Adam Boulton: =D2I don=D5t
think that would be absurd, because we would be asking the French
people to reflect, to hear the argument or the debate in the rest of
Europe and then to have a second opportunity to give their verdict
again in the light of that debate.
=D2What would be absurd is if you simply marched on and left the French
people and their views behind you. You couldn=D5t do that.=D3
Mr Mandelson=D5s predecessor in Brussels, the pro-European former Labour
leader Lord Kinnock, said he was hoping for a =D2oui=D3 vote today, in
order to ensure Britain got its referendum and the period of public
debate that would precede it.
He told BBC1=D5s Breakfast With Frost: =D2I really would like to get on
with nine to 12 months of real argument and, more important, proper
public information, so people can make a decision on the basis of
acquaintance with the facts and the real alternatives.=D3
But Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Sir Menzies Campbell
told Sky News: =D2If France votes No, France having been part of the
engine room of Europe for so long, any suggestion that we might in
Britain go on and have a referendum on this topic is, quite frankly,
silly.=D3
Shadow foreign secretary Liam Fox said a no vote would offer =D2a
wonderful opportunity for reform and to make European politicians think
again=D3.
He told Sky News: =D2I think we should have a British referendum if there
is a process ongoing.
=D2It does seem from some of the views from the Commission that they
intend to continue the process and keep the issue alive and, if
necessary, ask the French to think again if they say No.=D3
All 25 EU member-states must ratify the constitution in order for it to
come into effect as planned in November next year. So far, nine have
done so, eight by parliamentary vote and just one =D0 Spain =D0 by
referendum.
About 1.5 million voters in France=D5s overseas territories from the
Caribbean to Polynesia cast their ballots yesterday, with the results
to be kept under wraps until the end of voting in mainland France.


Latest News:

=CA=CAhttp://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm


help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
the continent ?

nitram wrote:
On 30 May 2005 02:52:45 -0700, wrote:


help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
the continent ?

PLAN B?

retail therapy with my worthless Euros ?

On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:37:19 +0200, Mxsmanic
wrote:

writes:

The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?

Earl

Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but
shoot you fool mouth about.

Strangely enough, a lot of financial analysts agree with Earl. The weak
dollar is the result of serious and durable problems with the U.S.
budget, whereas the decision of France not to ratify the European
constitution isn't expected to have more than a small and temporary
effect on the euro.

First, you can find analysts to back whatever position you want to put
forward. The question is which of them is correct.

Second, it is absurd to say that the problem of the dollar (whatever
problem that is supposed to be) has nothing to do with the Euro.
Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
"weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
countries whose currencies are getting "stronger." Just look at the
reletive economic performance of the EU countries (most, not all)
compared to the US and you will see that as the US economy started
recovering, the dollar got "weaker." This makes the US economy
perform even better vis-a-vis those EU economies, because it makes US
exports cheaper and EU exports more expensive relative to the US,
furthering economic growth. The only way many European companies can
come close to maintaining their market share in the US is by keeping
their US prices relatively stable, thus lowering the company's profit
which is reported in Euros. Just how is that a problem for the US and
the dollar? And not for the Euro based countries? It isn't without
reason that so many EU countries have consistently high unemployment
and slow growing ecomies.

Third, if the so-called problem of the dollar is only the balance of
trade deficit, Earl the dumb is totally unaware of the effect of the
budget deficit which has much more effect. Just where is the market
for all the EU goods to displace that which the US buys? You mention
the US budget, where Earl the dumb is oblivious to it, and you are a
lot closer to the truth than he is. It has much more of an impact on
the dollar's value over time than the trade deficit, but knowing him,
he probably doesn't know the difference between the two anyway.

Fourth, the part about France is undoubtedly correct.

On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:44:34 +0200, Mxsmanic
wrote:

lola writes:

We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
a weaker Euro?

No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.

Wrong. As I said, there are two sides to this equation and the weaker
dollar helps US exports and economic growth and, conversely, hurts
that of the EU countries. Just go ask those EU companies whose
profits are getting whacked so much if it's not a matter of the Euro
being worth too much and see what answer you get. Of course, if you
are a tourist, you want a stronger dollar because you want your travel
to be cheaper in dollar terms, but then you might return to the US and
find out you have lost your job because it has been eliminated by
cheaper imports.

On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:01:56 GMT, "Bill McKee"
wrote:


"Mxsmanic" wrote in message
.. .
lola writes:

We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
a weaker Euro?

No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.


Yeah, due in part to the problems of that weak dollar Earl the dumb
prattles on about.

On Mon, 30 May 2005 13:09:47 +0200, nitram wrote:

On 30 May 2005 03:32:12 -0700, wrote:



nitram wrote:
On 30 May 2005 02:52:45 -0700, wrote:


help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
the continent ?

PLAN B?

retail therapy with my worthless Euros ?

Total value of Dutch house mortgages is equal to 95% of GNP.
DON'T PANIC!

Making almost the entire Dutch GNP house mortgages. What ever
happened to the cheese, beer and tulips?

wrote:
On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:44:34 +0200, Mxsmanic
wrote:


lola writes:


We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
a weaker Euro?

No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.


Wrong. As I said, there are two sides to this equation and the weaker
dollar helps US exports and economic growth and, conversely, hurts
that of the EU countries. Just go ask those EU companies whose
profits are getting whacked so much if it's not a matter of the Euro
being worth too much and see what answer you get. Of course, if you
are a tourist, you want a stronger dollar because you want your travel
to be cheaper in dollar terms, but then you might return to the US and
find out you have lost your job because it has been eliminated by
cheaper imports.

If you compare the Dollar-to-Euro exchange rate over the past 5 years
with the figures for European growthrate and unemployment, you'll see
there's a direct correlation.
T.