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"Air marshals cover only a few flights"



 
 
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  #21  
Old August 17th, 2004, 11:58 PM
R J Carpenter
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"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner
crash.

Even on the disastrous day of 9/11, if you had a scheduled departure from
any US airport chosen at random between 7 and 10 am, the chance of being on
one of the crashed airliners was probably not more than one in a thousand -
and that is the ONLY "bad" day on record.

The historical incidence of crashes is around one in a million takeoffs for
reputable airlines, not one in ten thousand. Is your likelihood of dying
tomorrow from other causes as low as one in a million? People only live
about 25,000 - 30,000 days.





  #22  
Old August 18th, 2004, 02:54 AM
Bob Chipeska
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner
crash.


I believe the last one was the Airbus that went down over Brooklyn. Those of
us with at least 3-4 decades under our belts can remember a time when
commercial airliners went down a couple times every year, and that was in
countries with state-of-the-art aircraft and control systems.

Example: Windshear. When was the last time you heard of an airliner being
brought down by windshear? Last incident I can recall in the US was at DFW
in the mid-1980s. Since then airports have installed detection equipment.


  #23  
Old August 18th, 2004, 02:54 AM
Bob Chipeska
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner
crash.


I believe the last one was the Airbus that went down over Brooklyn. Those of
us with at least 3-4 decades under our belts can remember a time when
commercial airliners went down a couple times every year, and that was in
countries with state-of-the-art aircraft and control systems.

Example: Windshear. When was the last time you heard of an airliner being
brought down by windshear? Last incident I can recall in the US was at DFW
in the mid-1980s. Since then airports have installed detection equipment.


  #24  
Old August 18th, 2004, 03:12 AM
Bob Chipeska
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Fly Guy" wrote in message ...
Ender wrote:

Mike wrote:


Federal air marshals protect less than 5 percent of daily U.S.


True or not, it wouldn't be a problem if everyone believed that
air marshals were on every flight.


What's even more logical is this:

After 9/11, the popular impression that it's best to cooperate with
hijackers was thrown out the window.

What most people now believe (I'm sure) is that it's best to combat
hijackers immediately - and not be just a plane-load of sheep.


I would imagine that any would-be jihaddi hijackers are also aware that
travelers are already on a hair-trigger. Examine the incidents since 9/11:
An insane/drunk man rushes to the cockpit door and the passengers promptly
flatten him. A person with a mental disorder or someone who's intoxicated
won't be deterred by a pre-flight announcement.

What the US Gov't and FAA SHOULD have done after 9/11 is to add the
following line to the pre-recorded message played on all commercial
flights prior to take-off:

"You may be called upon by a member of the crew or fellow passengers
to assist them in disarming or detaining anyone threatening the safety
of this aircraft."

That single innocuous statement alone is worth more than a thousand
air-marshalls. It turns every flight into a plane full of air
marshalls. No self-respecting hijacker, upon hearing such a message
on test-flight after test-flight, would ever consider a hi-jacking
al-la 9/11 again.


The jihadis plan and rehearse their attacks. Based on their history, if they
plan to hijack another airliner they already know the passengers will put up
a fight. If there is a genuine hijacking, do you really think an FA with a
knife to her throat is going to have the presence of mind to ask the
passengers to detain her captor? Do you honestly believe a jihaddi hijacker
will be scared by your announcement? I don't.


  #25  
Old August 18th, 2004, 03:12 AM
Bob Chipeska
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Fly Guy" wrote in message ...
Ender wrote:

Mike wrote:


Federal air marshals protect less than 5 percent of daily U.S.


True or not, it wouldn't be a problem if everyone believed that
air marshals were on every flight.


What's even more logical is this:

After 9/11, the popular impression that it's best to cooperate with
hijackers was thrown out the window.

What most people now believe (I'm sure) is that it's best to combat
hijackers immediately - and not be just a plane-load of sheep.


I would imagine that any would-be jihaddi hijackers are also aware that
travelers are already on a hair-trigger. Examine the incidents since 9/11:
An insane/drunk man rushes to the cockpit door and the passengers promptly
flatten him. A person with a mental disorder or someone who's intoxicated
won't be deterred by a pre-flight announcement.

What the US Gov't and FAA SHOULD have done after 9/11 is to add the
following line to the pre-recorded message played on all commercial
flights prior to take-off:

"You may be called upon by a member of the crew or fellow passengers
to assist them in disarming or detaining anyone threatening the safety
of this aircraft."

That single innocuous statement alone is worth more than a thousand
air-marshalls. It turns every flight into a plane full of air
marshalls. No self-respecting hijacker, upon hearing such a message
on test-flight after test-flight, would ever consider a hi-jacking
al-la 9/11 again.


The jihadis plan and rehearse their attacks. Based on their history, if they
plan to hijack another airliner they already know the passengers will put up
a fight. If there is a genuine hijacking, do you really think an FA with a
knife to her throat is going to have the presence of mind to ask the
passengers to detain her captor? Do you honestly believe a jihaddi hijacker
will be scared by your announcement? I don't.


  #26  
Old August 18th, 2004, 03:38 AM
Fly Guy
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Bob Chipeska wrote:

... if they plan to hijack another airliner they already know the
passengers will put up a fight.


Give it a few years. Memories will fade. When faced with a similar
situation, there is no garantee that a plane full of pax WILL combat a
handfull of terrorists. They will be confused. They will look
around. They will wonder what to do. They will think - "if I act, it
may be the wrong thing to do". There will be self doubt. All this
while the terrorists are screaming at them to be quite and not talk to
each other. All this, because the collective understanding (that
hijackers are to be disabled at all costs) will not exist.

How many people know, like zombies, that the tray table and seat-back
must be upright and locked? That their **** must be stowed prior to
landing?

How many people WILL know, in the future, what to do in a 9-11
situation? How many people know RIGHT NOW? Who has told them -
officially? The cowards in the White-house and FAA? The airlines?
The media? Cowards all of them. Now, we'll give the sheep a handfull
of skymarshalls. We can't possibly enact a policy that would HELP
THEM HELP THEMSELVES in the case of the next 9-11.

If there is a genuine hijacking, do you really think an FA with
a knife to her throat is going to have the presence of mind to
ask the passengers to detain her captor?


Do you really think that such a request needs to be made? Do you WANT
IT so that such a request MUST be made to propel the passengers into
action?

What is the difference between a "genuine hijacking" and a "jihaddi
hijacking" in this day and age anyways? What- do you want the pax to
be sheep during a "genuine hijacking" ??? Do you want there to be 2
policies for how pax are supposed to react to a hijacking (or any such
violence within the cabin) ?

Do you honestly believe a jihaddi hijacker will be scared by
your announcement? I don't.


The intent would not be to scare them.

The intent would be to make them realize that pax in general, on each
and every flight, have the collective understanding that anyone who
endangers the plane or crew will be immediately tackled. Not just 1
week after 9/11, or 1 month, or 1 year - but for all times.
  #27  
Old August 18th, 2004, 03:38 AM
Fly Guy
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Bob Chipeska wrote:

... if they plan to hijack another airliner they already know the
passengers will put up a fight.


Give it a few years. Memories will fade. When faced with a similar
situation, there is no garantee that a plane full of pax WILL combat a
handfull of terrorists. They will be confused. They will look
around. They will wonder what to do. They will think - "if I act, it
may be the wrong thing to do". There will be self doubt. All this
while the terrorists are screaming at them to be quite and not talk to
each other. All this, because the collective understanding (that
hijackers are to be disabled at all costs) will not exist.

How many people know, like zombies, that the tray table and seat-back
must be upright and locked? That their **** must be stowed prior to
landing?

How many people WILL know, in the future, what to do in a 9-11
situation? How many people know RIGHT NOW? Who has told them -
officially? The cowards in the White-house and FAA? The airlines?
The media? Cowards all of them. Now, we'll give the sheep a handfull
of skymarshalls. We can't possibly enact a policy that would HELP
THEM HELP THEMSELVES in the case of the next 9-11.

If there is a genuine hijacking, do you really think an FA with
a knife to her throat is going to have the presence of mind to
ask the passengers to detain her captor?


Do you really think that such a request needs to be made? Do you WANT
IT so that such a request MUST be made to propel the passengers into
action?

What is the difference between a "genuine hijacking" and a "jihaddi
hijacking" in this day and age anyways? What- do you want the pax to
be sheep during a "genuine hijacking" ??? Do you want there to be 2
policies for how pax are supposed to react to a hijacking (or any such
violence within the cabin) ?

Do you honestly believe a jihaddi hijacker will be scared by
your announcement? I don't.


The intent would not be to scare them.

The intent would be to make them realize that pax in general, on each
and every flight, have the collective understanding that anyone who
endangers the plane or crew will be immediately tackled. Not just 1
week after 9/11, or 1 month, or 1 year - but for all times.
  #28  
Old August 18th, 2004, 10:16 AM
james_anatidae
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Bob Chipeska" wrote in message
...

"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average

of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out

the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days

since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US

airliner
crash.


I believe the last one was the Airbus that went down over Brooklyn. Those

of
us with at least 3-4 decades under our belts can remember a time when
commercial airliners went down a couple times every year, and that was in
countries with state-of-the-art aircraft and control systems.

Example: Windshear. When was the last time you heard of an airliner being
brought down by windshear? Last incident I can recall in the US was at DFW
in the mid-1980s. Since then airports have installed detection equipment.

I still remember the newsmedia talking about "Windshear" like it was the
boogie man way up until the mid 90's.

--
"I don't understand how poor people think."
-- George W. Bush, New York Times, 2003-08-26

Goliath & Wildwing's Storage Room
http://anatidae.homestead.com/


  #29  
Old August 18th, 2004, 10:16 AM
james_anatidae
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Bob Chipeska" wrote in message
...

"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average

of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out

the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days

since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US

airliner
crash.


I believe the last one was the Airbus that went down over Brooklyn. Those

of
us with at least 3-4 decades under our belts can remember a time when
commercial airliners went down a couple times every year, and that was in
countries with state-of-the-art aircraft and control systems.

Example: Windshear. When was the last time you heard of an airliner being
brought down by windshear? Last incident I can recall in the US was at DFW
in the mid-1980s. Since then airports have installed detection equipment.

I still remember the newsmedia talking about "Windshear" like it was the
boogie man way up until the mid 90's.

--
"I don't understand how poor people think."
-- George W. Bush, New York Times, 2003-08-26

Goliath & Wildwing's Storage Room
http://anatidae.homestead.com/


  #30  
Old August 18th, 2004, 10:16 AM
james_anatidae
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Bob Chipeska" wrote in message
...

"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average

of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out

the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days

since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US

airliner
crash.


I believe the last one was the Airbus that went down over Brooklyn. Those

of
us with at least 3-4 decades under our belts can remember a time when
commercial airliners went down a couple times every year, and that was in
countries with state-of-the-art aircraft and control systems.

Example: Windshear. When was the last time you heard of an airliner being
brought down by windshear? Last incident I can recall in the US was at DFW
in the mid-1980s. Since then airports have installed detection equipment.

I still remember the newsmedia talking about "Windshear" like it was the
boogie man way up until the mid 90's.

--
"I don't understand how poor people think."
-- George W. Bush, New York Times, 2003-08-26

Goliath & Wildwing's Storage Room
http://anatidae.homestead.com/


 




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