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#41
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Although your reasoning is sound, you can't talk statistics to someone who
is scared... I'd suggest a counsellor. (not for JohnT) "R J Carpenter" wrote in message ... "JohnT" wrote in message ... Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that occasionally really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe. Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There would be a crash about once a day in the USA. Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of 300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500 departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly one airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since "9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner crash. Even on the disastrous day of 9/11, if you had a scheduled departure from any US airport chosen at random between 7 and 10 am, the chance of being on one of the crashed airliners was probably not more than one in a thousand - and that is the ONLY "bad" day on record. The historical incidence of crashes is around one in a million takeoffs for reputable airlines, not one in ten thousand. Is your likelihood of dying tomorrow from other causes as low as one in a million? People only live about 25,000 - 30,000 days. |
#42
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Although your reasoning is sound, you can't talk statistics to someone who
is scared... I'd suggest a counsellor. (not for JohnT) "R J Carpenter" wrote in message ... "JohnT" wrote in message ... Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that occasionally really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe. Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There would be a crash about once a day in the USA. Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of 300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500 departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly one airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since "9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner crash. Even on the disastrous day of 9/11, if you had a scheduled departure from any US airport chosen at random between 7 and 10 am, the chance of being on one of the crashed airliners was probably not more than one in a thousand - and that is the ONLY "bad" day on record. The historical incidence of crashes is around one in a million takeoffs for reputable airlines, not one in ten thousand. Is your likelihood of dying tomorrow from other causes as low as one in a million? People only live about 25,000 - 30,000 days. |
#43
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The fact that nothing's happened since the "colours changed" means little.
If you change your oil every 5000 in your car, and it doesn't break down, do you try to extend that to 20 000? I don't think so... Insurance is insurance, whether you feel like it's giving you "value", or not. "31A" wrote in message news:lGSUc.27992$X12.11895@edtnps84... Zoeliz wrote in message ... ou only need to have 7-8 bad guys on a plane. So which are the flights not to go on? I'm planning a trip between the UK and the US in a few weeks and I'm getting frightened of taking the trip. Despite regular alerts and warnings, and elevated 'threat colors' since 9/11, nothing has ever happened. Which is not to say that it couldn't, but that the odds of your being involved are infinitesimally small. The administration will of course claim that nothing has happened because of the alerts, warnings etc. etc., a stance which (conveniently) cannot be proven or disproven. If we knew when or indeed if Al Q'aida will strike again, we could dispense with 99% of the current security nonsense. But since we don't, the Jacobsen School of Paranoia rules. Relax. |
#44
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The fact that nothing's happened since the "colours changed" means little.
If you change your oil every 5000 in your car, and it doesn't break down, do you try to extend that to 20 000? I don't think so... Insurance is insurance, whether you feel like it's giving you "value", or not. "31A" wrote in message news:lGSUc.27992$X12.11895@edtnps84... Zoeliz wrote in message ... ou only need to have 7-8 bad guys on a plane. So which are the flights not to go on? I'm planning a trip between the UK and the US in a few weeks and I'm getting frightened of taking the trip. Despite regular alerts and warnings, and elevated 'threat colors' since 9/11, nothing has ever happened. Which is not to say that it couldn't, but that the odds of your being involved are infinitesimally small. The administration will of course claim that nothing has happened because of the alerts, warnings etc. etc., a stance which (conveniently) cannot be proven or disproven. If we knew when or indeed if Al Q'aida will strike again, we could dispense with 99% of the current security nonsense. But since we don't, the Jacobsen School of Paranoia rules. Relax. |
#45
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I'd suggest a counsellor.
Frankly, I can't see what good a counsellor would do for being afraid of flying. There are several legitimate reasons for those fears so why go to a counsellor for them. However, I did find the statistics comforting and reasonable. Zoe |
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